I saw your avatar and thought where have I seen that before. Look up and it is the pix on my calander for this month.

The long range European models were calling for a Northern GOM landfall a couple of days ago.  The GFDL does not even intitialize the storm in the right location, so you can really throw that one out the window till the storm actually developes more.  And the other models are shifting back to the west more and more.  Somehow I do see this one wobbling through as a depression and making it's way into the gulf.  From there it's anyone's guess right now.  The thing is, we need the storm to actually develope before the models get a good grip on it.

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Jon

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081512-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

126 hours out (middle to end of next week)

I don't like the way the models keep shifting our way recently.  But they have been flip flopping over the last few days.  But this is the first time they have put it in the gulf and coming anywhere near us.

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Jon

The models have been shifting west over the past couple of days now.

be interesting to see what happens.

sounds like conditions are riping for use.  Jet stream should shift north and we have no shear.  Bad news for GOM

Donny Hanto

War Eagle!!!

Team Kickin Assphalt

Check the IR Loop.  I think the models and the NHC track will shift more to the east later this week.  Florida's West Coast will have to keep an eye out for Fay.  Right now it's all a big guess.

_______________________________________________________________________________

    http://www.nra.org/home.aspx

"The right of self-defense never ceases.  It is among the most sacred, and alike necessary to nations and to individuals."  James Monroe

Just something to be optimistic about if nothing else.........

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Team Key West Boats. Evinrude Etec. Shimano Reels.

    http://www.nra.org/home.aspx

"The right of self-defense never ceases.  It is among the most sacred, and alike necessary to nations and to individuals."  James Monroe

Who is "they"? Who's predicted path?

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    http://www.nra.org/home.aspx

"The right of self-defense never ceases.  It is among the most sacred, and alike necessary to nations and to individuals."  James Monroe

P.S. The computer models have shifted both west and east.  They are not very reliable in the long run.  They are just another aid. 

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    http://www.nra.org/home.aspx

"The right of self-defense never ceases.  It is among the most sacred, and alike necessary to nations and to individuals."  James Monroe

That's one computer model (NoGaps, one of the globals and usually pretty good) that sticks this bastard right where we don't want it. The SPREAD has widened a LOT in the last 24 hours.

The bad news is that if NoGAPS verifies we're in deep shit as there will be ~3-4 days over open, warm water for it to get its shit together.  That would auger for a Cat 3ish impact.

Be alert but not panicy - yet.

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Genesis (8/16/2008)

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That's one computer model (NoGaps, one of the globals and usually pretty good) that sticks this bastard right where we don't want it. The SPREAD has widened a LOT in the last 24 hours.

The bad news is that if NoGAPS verifies we're in deep shit as there will be ~3-4 days over open, warm water for it to get its shit together.  That would auger for a Cat 3ish impact.

Be alert but not panicy - yet.

What are you basing your Cat 3 prediction on?  Did you know that intensity predictions are the most unreliable of all?  I know evryone has a right to his/hers opinion but please consider all available data before making an unfounded claim like that.

_______________________________________________________________________________

    http://www.nra.org/home.aspx

"The right of self-defense never ceases.  It is among the most sacred, and alike necessary to nations and to individuals."  James Monroe

There's not much in the way of the synoptic environment to inhibit strengthening through at least 72 hours, and then only marginally with a bit of shear forecast.

I have very little confidence that the NoGAPS path will verify, in fact, no more than any of the other global models - they're literally all over the place. 

This is risk management, not a prediction.  Thinking that this storm is of "no risk" to this area is foolish.  While the probability is low, the danger if you're caught with your pants down is high.

One element of the synoptics that augers for a westerly path is that a large part of the "will go east" models is the progression of the cut-off upper level low over Colorado eastward.  I see nothing to indicate that this is going to happen. 

Thy synoptics are difficult here and complicated significantly by the stationary front, which has been there for a bit and so far looks pretty stable.  That takes a westward move beyond roughly NO out of the picture, and its presence - and lack of movement - is a big part of why the globals are having such a tough time getting a solution that isn't 300+ miles wide right now.

There are mutiple aircraft doing both in-close study and upper-air work now and over the next couple of days and that data should tighten up the guidance materially.  Until it does I'm merely pointing out that the potential for a significant impact in this area is currently forecast by a global model that has a fairly decent track record over multiple years, and that there is also intensity model support up to Cat 3 at landfall if a western path verifies.  In addition this is a large storm so it won't have to nail you "bullseye" to be serious trouble.

If it goes further east it will be weaker simply due to the lack of time over water and the greater disruption by interaction with Cuba; in particular if it runs into the eastern half of cuba in any material way the terrain will be very disruptive to its circulation.

The western end of Cuba, not so much.

I'm not running around stocking the pantry and making "bug out" plans, and I live directly on the water, but I AM watching the models warily on a "couple times a day" basis at present, and suggest that others do so as well, being ready to make preparations in the next couple of days if the western model runs appear to be verifying.

That's all.

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. 

Genesis,

I do apologize for the brusque comments in my last post.  They were completely uncalled for. 

Although I agree with your reasoning,  I do not see intensification to a Cat 3 along the NOGAPS track in the above models. 

_______________________________________________________________________________

    http://www.nra.org/home.aspx

"The right of self-defense never ceases.  It is among the most sacred, and alike necessary to nations and to individuals."  James Monroe

Sunday, August 17, 1200 UTC

Monday, August 18, 0000 UTC

Monday, August 18, 1200 UTC

Tuesday, August 19, 0000 UTC

Tuesday, August 19, 1200 UTC

Wednesday, August 20, 0000 UTC

Wednesday, August 20, 1200 UTC

Thursday, August 21, 0000 UTC

Thursday, August 21, 1200 UTC

Friday, August 22, 0000 UTC

Friday, August 22, 1200 UTC

Saturday, August 23, 0000 UTC

The two best times to fish is when it's rainin' and when it ain't.

The global model guidance will not tighten up until Fay clears Cuba as a consequence.  This sucks severely, as all we have is visual and radar observations to go on.  Right now we are literally forecasting track using 1960s technology.  Oh joy.

The model track guidance has narrowed a bit but not in a way that helps us materially.  The odds of a transit up the EAST coast of Florida have decreased.  Nothing else has changed.

The cutoff upper level low and stationary front are the keys to the subtropical ridge that the models are projecting Fay to come around and head northward upon.  Neither has moved materially in the last 12 hours.  The stationary front, however, shows signs of being pressed southward slightly on the westward end by the high in the center of the nation.  This supports a slightly more eastward track and decreases the probability that we get anything out of this storm.

It doesn't help the people in the Keys (who are pretty-much certain to get hit with SOMETHING) and it leaves the western coast of Florida under the gun, along with somewhat-increasing odds that the southern tip of the state and surrounding areas get hit (e.g. Miami)

The key to intensity is Cuba.  That Fay has moved a bit closer to Cuba and the envelope is interacting materially with the eastern half of the island is inhibiting organization; this is good from an intensity point of view, and augers for a weaker system.

BTW NoGaps intensity guidance is almost worthless in my experience.  SHIPS is reasonably decent but some of the other globals are "bombing" this system on intensity once it clears Cuba.  I'm not buying it at this point due to the interaction with the eastern half of the island; with the system materially disrupted by its passage over Cuba it will take time to reorganize once it gets into the Gulf, which is good.  My caution was predicated on the storm not having material interaction with the eastern half of Cuba, and that appears to be a bust as it has edged closer, just enough to disrupt the storm's continued organization.

Nonetheless a hurricane impact on the west coast should be expected if the storm tracks up the "line" of the NHC path, and if the storm fails to go ashore "early" on the west coast, the longer it stays over water the stronger it is likely to be.

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The only good news out of this thing so far is that Cuba is screwing with its ability to wrap convection and organize, and its drawing inflow from land in the northern semicircle - which is a LOT drier air than off the water.

That's why no ramp as of yet - its a bit too far north to crank up.  It also looks to be going over the middle part of Cuba instead of the western half, which will inhibit the storm as the terrain is more hostile.

However, once it gets in the gulf the question becomes whether that subtropical ridge break holds or whether the ridging builds back in.  I see no argument for a full capture and recurvature at this point in time in the synoptics at all, and if the high over the middle of the nation moves south and east, it will tend to deflect Fay west of due north.  The Jet will control this, to a large degree, which is why you see such a huge divergence in the global models - they disagree on where the jet is going to be 3-4 days from now, and what happens to that cut-off low.

One thing of note is that the global climate models, in general, tend to "eject" cut-off upper level lows faster than actually happens.  Nobody knows exactly why, but they do - reliably.  The eastern tracks (especially ones up the east coast) depend on this happening in the evolution of the synoptic pattern.  If it doesn't happen, that sort of eastern-side envelope move also won't happen.  This is the primary reason that last night I posted what I did as a cautionary note, and until the storm is off Cuba and we have clean observational data to feed into the models (likely sometime Monday, which is "too late" for people on the west coast and in the Keys) we simply won't know.

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yesterday we restocked the hurricane locker with water, batteries, and bullets

Depending on what happens tonight, tomorrow I'll be getting fuel and propane.

I got my 60 gallons of gas for my generator yesterday.  If the storm comes in the central/western gulf, prices of gas will go up whether it hits us or not.  The NHC's forecast is now the most eastern of all the models. NOT GOOD.  But let's wait till it get's away from Cuba.  Then we should get a much better handle on it.

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Jon