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Trigger
 
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Snapper
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| yep, this could get interesting. Here is the models for Sunday, Aug 9th. I'll post the new models for Monday, Aug 10th in the morning. 
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Blue Marlin
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| The models are putting this one right up into the gulf eventually. They are giving it a strong chance for developement. 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Sailfish
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Grouper
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aaaaahhhhhhh just a big puff of wind!
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Sailfish
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Hopefully they don't hit us. Heard the one is somewhat following the same course Andrew did. Also heard there is a third one stacked right behind it.
"Fish Like You're Hungry!""Eat More Fish!" 
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Snapper
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Its about that time.....
Steve Adams
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Snapper
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| Models for 8-12 am. Still could go anywhere, not trying to be an alarmist. Just FYI. 
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Sailfish
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WWW.SouthAgain.com (still under construction) 2202 Century Bay / 250 Yamaha 4stroke South Again Custom Rods
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Snapper
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| All the models today are NOT giving this thing much of a chance for development...Good! And, the one behind it is suppose to turn/hook up into the north Atlantic. I'm done here, unless it flares-up and start heading our way (not likely).
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Blue Marlin
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HeartofDixie (8/13/2008)
All the models today are NOT giving this thing much of a chance for development...Good! And, the one behind it is suppose to turn/hook up into the north Atlantic. I'll done here, unless it flares-up and start heading our way (not likely).If it survives a few more days, it will more than likely blow up into a nice system near the Bahamas and the Florida Straights. Dry air is starving the system right now, but once it moves a little more west, and begins to feed on the warm moist gulf, it might get it's act together. Right now convection drops off at night and then flares back up in the morning hours. So it's a waiting game on 92L. I wouldn't scratch it off the list just yet. And if it starts to develope, it will depend on how fast it developes as to when it will make the northward turn. A weak storm will make the turn early. Where as a stronger storm will make the northward job a bit later and bring it up our way. For example: Here are the present steering currents for a 1000 - 1010 pressure storm. About equal to a depression. 
But here are the steering currents for a small hurricane right now. 
Notice the difference in where the wind currents could force a storm to make the northward jog. If something like 92L stays weak for longer, it equals good for us. If it intensifies before it gets to the bahamas, the outlook for a gulf storm looks more likely.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Sailfish
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Blue Marlin
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I have always liked the GFDL model. It seems to be the more accurate of all the models once a storm reaches TD strength. Right now, there is not enough info for the models to really get a grip on this thing. The GFDL puts this as a TS once it reaches the Bahamas and just north of Cuba. But the trend on all the models recently has been to back down the system from strengthening real soon. But I still think we will have Fay out of this one eventually.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Sailfish
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I think I read where the models don't account for the dust air very well. Thats one of the killers for this storm
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Snapper
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AUradar (8/13/2008)
HeartofDixie (8/13/2008)
All the models today are NOT giving this thing much of a chance for development...Good! not quite yeah...now the GFDL model is saying Cat 2 hurricane in the bahamas...this morning it said tropical depression in the bahamas. Who knows? Just goes to show ya you can't always predict Mother Nature. I'll wait on ol' Jim Cantori to show up, and go the opposite direction as him.
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Snapper
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All models dont do very well in the tropics, kick ass in the states but the a good tropical model is still a ways away. I have found the GFS to be decent but any weather guy has his favorites. The key to the models are that you need to watch which one initializes well but also verifies as well, its all in the verification, and it could change from one day to the next which model is verifying better. In my 17 years of experience I have found that trusting the NHC is the way to go. There are some big brains there that have been in the business for 20-30 years and they do a pretty good job at nailing down a track. A big hurricane is going to go where it wants, say Cat 4 or 5 but thankfully those are somewhat rare. They create their own environment. Anyway, I could go on and on, its fun watching them way out there and guessing where they will go and what they will do, my take is that both will curve North in the next few days being sucked up by the upper level Low that just got done with us.
Steve Adams
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Ruby Red Lip
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Blue Marlin
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weatherman (8/13/2008)
All models dont do very well in the tropics, kick ass in the states but the a good tropical model is still a ways away. I have found the GFS to be decent but any weather guy has his favorites. The key to the models are that you need to watch which one initializes well but also verifies as well, its all in the verification, and it could change from one day to the next which model is verifying better. In my 17 years of experience I have found that trusting the NHC is the way to go. There are some big brains there that have been in the business for 20-30 years and they do a pretty good job at nailing down a track. A big hurricane is going to go where it wants, say Cat 4 or 5 but thankfully those are somewhat rare. They create their own environment. Anyway, I could go on and on, its fun watching them way out there and guessing where they will go and what they will do, my take is that both will curve North in the next few days being sucked up by the upper level Low that just got done with us.Yep, the models all get their turn at being right sometimes. It looks like they are all starting to agree on a northward turn for 92L before it would impact the US. That's some good news. But we never really know for sure. The CMC forms something south of Cuba in the long range. But the CMC is know for producing ghost storms every so often. 93L looks to be a fish spinner. So far, I think we are in the clear for a bit more.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Snapper
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Hey TP, where did you get your interest in weather?
Steve Adams
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Sailfish
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| ......was just about to move to montana...AI (after ivan) and then 05'...i had had enough... 
http://www.forumpictureprocessor.com/gallery.asp?gallery=876 "Above all, we must realize that no arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the worked are so formidable as the will and moral and courage of free men and women. It is a weapon adversaries in today's world do not have". -Ronald Reagan, USA
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Blue Marlin
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weatherman (8/14/2008)
Hey TP, where did you get your interest in weather? Just picked up the interest to fill in some bordem at times. The Engineer in me comes out when I research a topic, I like to know it all and find out what I can. So I usually do some in depth research into any topic that interests me. Weather has always just facinated me. The good and the bad.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Snapper
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Wow, nice development today, definitly a depression if not a storm.
Steve Adams
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Blue Marlin
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weatherman (8/14/2008)
Wow, nice development today, definitly a depression if not a storm.Yep, the system seemed to close off in a hurry today from an open wave. It shot out the convection to the NW and closed itself off. The center of circulation seems to be somewhere near 18N 61W By the time the hurricane hunter get's there, I wouldn't be surprised to see the report say Fay has formed and skip the depression report all together. It developed some nice banding structure here in the last few frames. 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Snapper
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Blue Marlin
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H2OMARK (8/14/2008)
OK Jon, The million dollar question, do I need to come down and secure everything this weekend? Or just wait a few more days? Long range forecast for this one looks to spin it up the east coast and not come into the Gulf. But as with all of these things, you just never know. But I wouldn't be planning on this one affecting us. That is as long as the ridge swings it north and then northeast. 
But we are getting to the part of the season where we will have something to keep our eye on just about every week.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Blue Marlin
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Just as I typed the above, the models ran again and shifted back a little westward. With some of the European models bringing it across Florida. Just goes to show you that these forecasting models are great tools for forecasting out 2-3 days. Beyond that, they shift all over the place all the time.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." Jon
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Grouper
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I'm just put'n this out there for anyone who is in need, I sell good home owners insurance.850-862-8644 Gulfside insurance inc.And any other kind , like boat.
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Snapper
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Well, this one is going to bear watching, the upper level low has outrun this system and the high is going to build back in. My favorite model for the tropics has this system slowly moving WNW not doing much and then making a beeline into the Gulf between FL and Cuba on the 21st. Then intensifying in the Gulf into a Cat I or II system making landfall on the border of TX and LA on the morning of the 27th. Looks like 20-30 mph for us on the 23rd to 24th for this slow moving system.
Steve Adams
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Sailfish
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I sure pray it doesn't come here... but then... if it hits the oil fields... there goes the price of gas back up. 
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>))))))*> >)))))))))))*> >))))))))))*> >))))*> >))))*> >))))))))*> >)))*>
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Snapper
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Yeah, i would pre buy all you can.
Steve Adams
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